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Research

Research

Research

Website

http://sala.lab.asu.edu/forecasting-dryland-vulnerability/

Summary

Roughly 70% of Department of Defense (DoD) lands consists of installations in western U.S. drylands. As a result of interacting climate and land use pressures, DoD resource managers face significant challenges for managing core biological communities and ecosystem processes under non-stationary conditions. The maintenance of native vegetation and ecosystem processes is key for the utility and health of these ecosystems, which face escalating pressures from climate change. At the same time, critical training activities on DoD lands cause disturbances that will interact with the changing climate to affect distributions of habitat-defining plants and ecosystem processes. Improved understanding of how these factors will interactively impact DoD lands is needed for adaptive management.

This project is organized around four objectives, to provide management tools and improved forecasting of ecosystem vulnerability to individual and interacting pressures from climate change and disturbance at multiple spatial and temporal scales:

  1. assess the vulnerability of plant species and communities to climate change and disturbance on three DoD installations of distinct drylands (i.e., Great Basin, Mojave, and Chihuahuan deserts) across a latitudinal climatic gradient
  2. scale our findings and existing data to assess spatial and temporal variability in the drivers of species vulnerability to climate change and disturbance across this climatic gradient
  3. develop an improved understanding of how vegetation responses to climate change and disturbance will affect key ecosystem processes
  4. deliver a robust set of tools for predicting responses of vegetation and ecological processes to climate change and disturbance to support DoD land management.

We aim to help DoD managers plan for and manage ecosystems affected by climate change through a multidisciplinary effort to understand the interactive effects of climate change and disturbance on vegetation commu

Personnel

Funding

U.S. Department of Defense

Timeline

April 2018 — Ongoing