Agroecosystems can provide important services to nature and people, yet poor management can tip the balance toward disservices. One of the principle impacts of agriculture on global environmental change is the modification of the water cycle; agriculture is a dominant water consumer and nutrient, sediment, and bacteria runoff can reduce water quality. Aquatic systems and people in proximity to intensified agriculture, such as concentrated animal feeding operations, will be at an elevated risk due to increased storm frequency and intensity under climate change. Nature-based strategies can play a role in improving the resilience of agricultural regions; for example, introducing vegetated buffers can capture nutrients and increase water holding capacity, which improves water quality and protects downstream communities from flooding.

The Cape Fear River Watershed in North Carolina has among the highest densities of animal agriculture in the U. S.—chiefly swine and poultry production—and has experienced 3 devastating 500-yr hurricanes in the past 2 years, in addition to droughts associated with harmful algal blooms. To assess nutrient pollution risk, we are using remote sensing to map hurricane-induced flooding and characterize the condition of floodplain buffers. To identify locations where interventions (e. g. restoration, modified agriculture management) should be located, we are using a hydrologic model to quantify water quality and flood retention benefits under scenarios ranging from hurricanes to droughts.

Results will support ongoing initiatives for hurricane disaster relief and planning for future resilience. Lessons gained can guide climate adaptation strategies in other intensified agricultural landscapes subject to elevated flood and hurricane risk.

Partners

• Arizona State University
• The Nature Conservancy