In face of increasing drought risk in semi-arid and rapid urbanizing regions such as the US Southwest, it is increasingly important that the diversity of water users collaborate and participate in the adaptation and transformation of water-use systems. Despite declining area in crop production in central Arizona, irrigated agriculture remains the primary water user. While the last decades have witnessed a growth in climate services and drought monitoring in Arizona, as well as programs to support enhanced water conservation in farming, available evidence suggests the Arizona farm sector has yet to take full advantage of these services. We hypothesize that water regulation in the state has buffer farmers from inter-annual variability and climatic shocks, however this increased robustness may be at the expense of the vulnerability of the broader region to future drought and water scarcity.

The objective of this project is to help farmers maximize opportunities to enhance their flexibility in face of climatic stress while also investing in the resilience of the broader social-ecological system on which farmers depend. We address CSI-Water priorities associated with evaluation of institutional readiness and climate risk perception. Specifically, we will evaluate the relationship among farm-level capacities and perceptions, information use, technology adoption and the institutional context of decision-making. We ask: 1) What role do water resource management institutions – namely, the Ground Water Management Act of 1980 (the GMA) – play in farmers' perception of climate risk, interest in and use of climate services (specifically drought information and early warning) and capacity to innovate in water conservation? 2) What are the robustness-vulnerability trade-offs associated with different modes of interaction between institutions, information, and agent decision-making in the study area? 3) What institutional arrangements and communication strategies will facilitate learning and innovation in response to increased water scarcity?