Agrarian Landscapes in Transition:
A Cross-Scale Approach

This interdisciplinary project will trace the effects of the introduction, spread, and abandonment of agriculture at six U.S. long-term ecological research (LTER) sites, with cross comparisons in Mexico and France, using a variety of monitoring strategies, quantitative modeling, and comparative data. Agrarian transformations represent the most pervasive alteration of the Earth's terrestrial environment during the past 10,000 years. Many current conceptualizations of these transformations, however, assume a simple linear model-change is driven by present-day economic, demographic, and technological conditions. This project. funded by the National Science Foundation's Biocomplexity in the Environment program, incorporates a more integrated and long-term cycle: of land-use change affecting landscapes, of altered landscapes affecting ecological processes, and of both influencing the ways in which humans monitor and respond to their surroundings, engendering further cycles of change.

The central objective of this research is to identify and quantify the ways in which these integrated cycles differ across cultures, biogeographic regions, and time. A suite of quantitative and narrative analyses will be used to identify the prime determinants of long-term dynamics, present-day patterns, and reservoirs of ecological and social resilience in these systems. Analytical approaches will include structural-equation modeling, analysis of spatial and causal effects, and cross-site comparisons of case studies. As a practical test of the project's results, approaches and insights will be examined in the context of conservation planning at The Nature Conservancy that includes an emphasis on eco-regional planning and scenario building.

This project will demonstrate the importance of social-science information and approaches in ecosystem investigations, expand the results of the LTER network, and breach the divide between social and natural science. The greatest contributions, however, will be through education at many levels, for this project will train interdisciplinary scientists at all levels of the educational spectrum, inform public officials, and contribute to more effective land management practices.